Weak Chinese domestic economic data, poor trading outlook weigh on iron ore prices
Published by:Norman Fong<>
9 Jun 2025 @ 11:35 UTC

Seaborne iron ore prices continued to fall on Monday June 9, following a brief rebound late last week, in line with weaker economic data from China, sources told Fastmarkets. Trading in the CFR China market continued to slow on Monday, in line with lower prices, with fewer offers made on the trading platforms, with miners holding out for a price rebound in the coming days, sources said.
Key drivers The most-traded September iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) moved down by 0.6% on Monday from the previous closing price of 707.50 yuan ($98) per tonne.
By 6:24pm Singapore time, the most-traded July contract on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) had moved down by $0.86 per tonne compared with the previous settlement price of $95.51 per tonne.
Import interest in the primary seaborne market showed signs of tapering as market participants grappled with the release of weaker Chinese economic data for May and its likely impact on steel demand in the coming weeks.
China’s producer price index fell 3.3% in May 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 – the biggest drop in 22 months, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.
Cautious spending by Chinese households as well as the impact of US tariffs on manufactured goods in China have continued to mount significant deflationary pressure on the Chinese economy, an analyst in Shanghai said.
Chinese exports to the US plunged 34.5% year-on-year in May in value terms – the sharpest decline since February 2020, according to customs data.
Several market participants cited the impact of tariff hikes on Chinese consumer goods and Chinese steel exports as the main reasons behind the contraction in export sales, with some anticipating further dips in traded volumes over the coming months.
The impact of the uptick in steel tariffs by the US to 50% in the first week of June is expected to reverberate through [to] global trade flows, and the Chinese steel market is expected to [take a] negative [hit] due to its heavy exposure to the export market, a trader in Beijing said.
Not only are direct steel exports going to be affected, but exports of semi-finished steel products as well, the trader added.
Pellet feed, concentrates Pellet feed premiums slipped by $0.10 per tonne from the previous trading day in line with softer indications from market participants.
A trader in Xiamen told Fastmarkets that the price support for pellet feed premium which was mainly seen in May is starting to dissipate in line with lower bids seen in the market.
The tightness in spot supply from the short-term disruption of Peruvian pellet feed was largely negated by a dip in demand from end users, with lesser mills seeking out July-laycan pellet feed cargoes, a trader in Singapore said.
The support in demand was never expected to be sustained, given the weak market fundamentals for iron ore pellets in the domestic Chinese portside market, the trader added.
Fastmarkets’ iron ore indices 61% Fe fines, cfr Qingdao:$91.71 per tonne, down $0.80 per tonne 62% Fe fines, cfr Qingdao:$94.05 per tonne, down $0.81 per tonne 62% Fe low-alumina fines, cfr Qingdao:$94.80 per tonne, down $1.01 per tonne 58% Fe fines high-grade premium, cfr Qingdao:$82.99 per tonne, down $2.28 per tonne 65% Fe Brazil-origin fines, cfr Qingdao:$104.50 per tonne, down $0.76 per tonne 62.5% Fe Australia-origin lump ore premium, cfr Qingdao:$0.1600 per dry metric tonne unit (dmtu), unchanged 62% Fe fines, fot Qingdao:738 yuan per wet metric tonne (implied 62% Fe China Port Price:$94.35 per dry tonne), down by 16 yuan per wmt 67.5% Fe pellet feed premium, cfr Qingdao:$0.80 per tonne, down $0.10 per tonne 67.5% Fe pellet feed, cfr Qingdao:$109.81 per tonne, down $0.92 per tonne 65% Fe concentrate premium, cfr Qingdao:$(5.30) per tonne, down $0.10 per tonne 65% Fe concentrate, cfr Qingdao:$99.16 per tonne, down $0.87 per tonne
Trades/offers/bids heard in the market Vale, GlobalORE, 170,000 tonnes of 63% Fe Brazilian Blend fines, traded at $94.80 per tonne (62% Fe basis), laycan July 10-19
Beijing Iron Ore Trading Center, 190,000 tonnes of 58% Fe MB fines, traded at the July average of a 58% Fe iron ore fines index, laycan June 25 to July 4.
Rio Tinto, tender, 100,000 tonnes of 57.5% Fe SP10 fines, traded at the July average of a 62% Fe iron ore fines index with a discount of 11.5%, laycan July 6-15
Vale, tender, 70,000 tonnes of 64.97% Fe Pellet Feed Guaiba 2, traded at the monthly average of Fastmarkets’ 65% Fe index, CFR Qingdao, at the month of notice of readiness at the port of discharge with 3.58%, bill of lading dated May 31
Market participant indications Fastmarkets’ index for iron ore 61% Fe fines CFR Qingdao Pilbara Blend fines: $92.77-95.54 per tonne Newman fines: $92.80-93.00 per tonne Mac fines: $92.70-93.15 per tonne Jimblebar fines: $88.80-89.30 per tonne
Fastmarkets’ index for iron ore 65% Fe Brazil-origin fines CFR Qingdao Iron Ore Carajas: $103.96-105.00 per tonne
Fastmarkets’ index for iron ore 67.5% Fe Pellet Feed Premium, CFR Qingdao Minas Rio BFPF Pellet Feed: $(3.00)-(4.80) per tonne Atacama CNN Pellet Feed: $(2.50)-(3.75) per tonne Romeral Pellet Feed: $(2.00) per tonne Kaunis Pellet Feed: $0.00-1.00 per tonne Metinvest 68% Pellet Feed: $(3.00)-(4.00) per tonne Iron Bridge 67%: $(0.70)-(0.98) per tonne Ferrexpo 67%: $(0.50) per tonne
Fastmarkets’ index for iron ore 65% Fe Concentrate Premium, CFR Qingdao Citic Pacific Concentrate: $(5.50) per tonne Karara Concentrate: $(6.89) per tonne SIMEC Concentrate: $(1.00)-0.50 per tonne Metinvest SevGok Concentrate: $(4.70)-(6.50) per tonne
Port prices Pilbara Blend fines were traded at 723-741 yuan per wmt in Shandong province and in the ports of Tangshan city on Monday, compared with 728-748 yuan per wmt on last Friday.
The latest range is equivalent to about $92-95 per tonne in the seaborne market.
Dalian Commodity Exchange The most-traded September iron ore futures contract on the exchange closed at 703 yuan ($98) per tonne on Monday, down by 4.50 yuan per tonne from the previous closing price.