Uncertain July outlook weighs on iron ore prices
Published by:Norman Fong<>
25 Jun 2025 @ 10:56 UTC
Iron ore prices edged lower on Wednesday, June 25, in line with uncertain trading sentiment in the downstream steel market. Trading activity in the seaborne market remained firm, reflecting more offers for cargoes from Australia-based producers ahead of the end of the Australian financial year, market sources said.
Key drivers The most-traded September iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) was relatively unchanged from the previous closing price of 703 yuan ($98) per tonne.
By 6:04pm Singapore time, the most-traded July contract on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) had drifted $0.18 per tonne lower from the previous settlement price of $92.98 per tonne.
Trading sentiment remained weak for July-forward month contracts due to uncertainty about steel prices in the downstream market, according to a trader in Hong Kong.
Institutional investors are grappling with the uncertainty of war in the Middle East and the impending impact of tariff adjustments from the United States, the trader added.
There is a lot of hesitancy within the futures market over ferrous-related futures due to its intimate relationship with conflict and international traders, so most traders would rather wait out at existing price levels instead of taking additional positions, a trader in Singapore said.
Trading remained active in the primary spot market, with Australia-based producers continuing to offer additional cargoes ahead of the end of the financial year, a Shanghai-based analyst said.
Increasing inventory levels in China is likely to impede any rally in prices in the domestic portside market, the analyst told Fastmarkets, in line with a price-conscious procurement behavior among steelmakers.
We are in the lull season for steel products in the domestic Chinese market, so any rally in steel prices would have to come from the export market, a trader in Beijing said. And by the looks of it, steel exports are not going to exceed the strong levels in the first half of 2025, especially with the tariffs in place.
Seaborne iron ore lump demand remained firm in line with strong end-user demand in the portside market.
A 90,000-tonne cargo of 62.2% Fe Newman Blend Lump cargo with a laycan of July 18-27 traded on a trading platform at the July average of Fastmarkets’ 62% Fe index and another 62% Fe index on an FOB Australia basis plus a lump premium of $0.1550 per dry metric tonne unit.
A similar cargo with a laycan of July 23-August 1 traded at a premium of $0.1505 earlier in the trading week.
Pellet feed and concentrates Pellet feed premiums held steady at $1.20 per tonne based on Fastmarkets’ iron ore 65% Fe Brazil-origin fines, CFR Qingdao index.
Buyers and sellers held differing views over the demand of pellet feed cargoes in July at the Chinese portside market and the seaborne market.
Bids for pellet feed cargoes have started to fall since early June because there simply is no demand from most steelmakers for pellet feed material, a second trader in Beijing said. The rally in pellet feed cargoes is expected to be short-lived, especially when you consider the number of offers in the market against a limited number of interested buyers.
Discounts for a high-grade pellet feed cargo are showing signs of softening from a discount of $0.98 per tonne based on a 65% Fe index to a recent trade which sold at a discount of $1.10 per tonne, according to a trader in Xiamen.
Fastmarkets iron ore indices 61% Fe fines, cfr Qingdao: $89.48 per tonne, down $0.41 per tonne 62% Fe fines, cfr Qingdao: $91.77 per tonne, down $0.42 per tonne 62% Fe low-alumina fines, cfr Qingdao: $93.21 per tonne, down $0.41 per tonne 58% Fe fines high-grade premium, cfr Qingdao: $81.74 per tonne, down $0.41 per tonne 65% Fe Brazil-origin fines, cfr Qingdao: $103.47 per tonne, down $0.18 per tonne 62.5% Fe Australia-origin lump ore premium, cfr Qingdao: $0.1500 per dry metric tonne unit (dmtu),up $0.0050 per dmtu 62% Fe fines, fot Qingdao: 718 yuan per wet metric tonne (implied 62% Fe China Port Price: $91.97 per dry tonne), down by 5 yuan per wmt 67.5% Fe pellet feed premium, cfr Qingdao: $1.20 per tonne, unchanged 67.5% Fe pellet feed, cfr Qingdao: $108.85 per tonne, down $0.18 per tonne 65% Fe concentrate premium, cfr Qingdao: $(5.10) per tonne, unchanged 65% Fe concentrate, cfr Qingdao: $98.05 per tonne, down $0.18 per tonne
Trades/offers/bids heard in the market Vale, tender, 170,000 tonnes of 61.89% Fe Sinter Feed Carajas, traded at the monthly average of Fastmarkets’ 62% Fe low-alumina fines at the month of notice of readiness at the port of discharge with a discount of 3%, bill of lading dated June 20
Vale, tender, 70,000 tonnes of 65.01% Fe Pellet Feed Guaiba 2, bill of lading dated June 10
BHP, Beijing Iron Trading Center, 90,000 tonnes of 62.2% Fe Newman Blend Lumps, traded at July average of Fastmarkets’ 62% Fe index and another 62% Fe index on an FOB Australia basis plus a lump premium of $0.1550 per dry metric tonne unit, laycan July 18-27
BHP, globalORE, 80,000 tonnes of 62% Fe Mining Area C fines, traded at $90.30 per tonne CFR Qingdao, laycan July 18-27
Market participants indications Fastmarkets’ index for iron ore 61% Fe fines CFR Qingdao Pilbara Blend fines: $89.00-91.41 per tonne Brazilian Blend fines: $92.70-93.75 per tonne Newman fines: $90.20-90.71 per tonne Jimblebar fines: $86.25-86.61 per tonne
Fastmarkets’ index for iron ore 62% Fe fines CFR Qingdao Pilbara Blend fines: $92.65-93.50 per tonne Brazilian Blend fines: $92.70-93.75 per tonne Newman fines: $90.20-90.71 per tonne Jimblebar fines: $86.25-86.61 per tonne
Fastmarkets’ index for iron ore 65% Fe Brazil-origin fines CFR Qingdao Iron Ore Carajas: $103.10-103.65 per tonne
Fastmarkets’ index for iron ore 67.5% Fe Pellet Feed Premium, CFR Qingdao Atacama CNN Pellet Feed: $(1.50)-(2.50) per tonne Romeral Pellet Feed: $(2.00) per tonne Metinvest 68% Pellet Feed: $(1.50)-(3.50) per tonne Metinvest 67% Pellet Feed: $(3.75) per tonne Iron Bridge 67%: $(1.10) per tonne Ferrexpo 67%: $(0.50) per tonne
Fastmarkets’ index for iron ore 65% Fe Concentrate Premium, CFR Qingdao Citic Pacific Concentrate: $(5.00) per tonne Karara Concentrate: $(6.89) per tonne SIMEC Concentrate: $0.50 per tonne Metinvest SevGok Concentrate: $(4.30)-(6.50) per tonne
Port prices Pilbara Blend fines were traded at 695-715 yuan per wmt in Shandong province and the ports of Tangshan city on Wednesday, compared with 700-723 yuan per wmt on Tuesday.
The latest range is equivalent to about $89-92 per tonne in the seaborne market.
Dalian Commodity Exchange The most-traded September iron ore futures contract on the exchange closed at 702.50 yuan ($98) per tonne on Wednesday, relatively unchanged from the previous closing price.