Published by:Alice Li<>
22 May 2025 @ 11:32 UTC

Seaborne iron ore prices edged downward on Thursday May 22 amid concerns among market participants about a possible decline in Chinese hot metal output after it seemed to reach a peak in early May, sources have told Fastmarkets. Key drivers The most-traded September iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closed at 727 yuan ($101) per tonne on Thursday, down slightly from the previous day’s closing price of 728.50 yuan per tonne.
And by 5:54pm, the most-traded June contract on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) was down by $0.76 per tonne compared with the previous settlement price of $99.81 per tonne.
Member mills of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) recorded production totaling 1.99 million tonnes of hot metal per day in early May, up by 1.6% from late April and reaching an 11-month high, according to a notice released by the industry body on May 14.
This elevated hot metal output had partially supported iron ore prices in China, but the upcoming slow season for outdoor construction activity has made participants in the iron ore and steel derivatives markets turn cautious, according to sources.
Some sources added that there are no strong or substantial drivers supporting continuous growth in iron ore prices, and the foreseeable weakness in steel demand had damped some mills’ appetite for iron ore.
The hot metal output seems [to have] reached a peak-point; it might be hard to increase further, but may stay at this level for a while before dropping ahead of the weak steel consumption season in the coming months, a Beijing-based trader said.
The trader added that several large mills in China’s Shandong province have announced blast furnace maintenance plans this week, which could lead to a small drop in hot metal output.
Some market participants said that iron ore prices might continue to swing in a small range due to a lack of supply and demand imbalances.
In the seaborne iron ore market, trading was focused on mid-grade Australia fines in both the primary and secondary markets.
The number of tenders for 60.8% Fe Pilbara Blend fines increased this week, with a widening in the equivalent discount over the July average 62% Fe iron ore fines index seen.
Currently, 60.8% Fe PB fines [is] only traded between miner and traders. It takes some time to test its liquidity in the seaborne and China’s portside market, and other market participants could capture its value compared to other mid-grade fines, a second Beijing-based trader said.
The premium for high-grade Brazilian fines in the seaborne secondary market was further damped by larger negative arbitrage margins in China’s portside market, where supply outweighs demand.
An international trader sold a cargo of 180,000 tonnes of 64.69% Fe Carajas fines at the June average of Fastmarkets’ 65% Fe iron ore fines index with a discount around $2 per tonne on Wednesday, bill of lading dated April 26. The trader had bought the cargo at a discount of $0.50 per tonne to the July average of Fastmarkets’ 65% Fe iron ore fines index in early May, several sources told Fastmarkets on Thursday.
Demand for imported low-silica and high-grade pellet feed is said to be resilient due to restocking requirements from a few mills in northern and southern China, while speculative buying among traders remained limited, a Shanghai-based trader said.
The decline [in] shipments of high-grade pellet feed from Peru in recent months has made a few mills turned to other imported cargoes, a Beijing-based trader said, which could partially support [prices for this material] in the short term.
A 70,000-tonne cargo of 64.6% Fe Pellet feed fines Guaiba 2 was traded at the monthly average of Fastmarkets’ 65% Fe index at the month of notice of readiness at the port of discharge with a discount of 3.45% later on May 21, bill of lading dated May 10.
Some sources said the traded price is much higher than the previous deal in April – which saw a discount level of 5-6%.
In China’s portside market, a few traders were heard to have lowered their offer prices for mid-grade fines to conclude deals, partially due to the weakness in the iron ore derivatives market.
Pilbara Blend fines was traded at 755 yuan per tonne in Qingdao port on Thursday, down by 7 yuan per tonne from 762 yuan per tonne the previous day.
Fastmarkets iron ore indices 62% Fe fines, cfr Qingdao: $99.58 per tonne, down $0.40 per tonne 62% Fe low-alumina fines, cfr Qingdao: $98.84 per tonne, down $0.38 per tonne 58% Fe fines high-grade premium, cfr Qingdao: $87.78 per tonne, down $0.39 per tonne 65% Fe Brazil-origin fines, cfr Qingdao: $110.61 per tonne, down $0.40 per tonne 62.5% Fe Australia-origin lump ore premium, cfr Qingdao: $0.1550 per dry metric tonne unit (dmtu), unchanged 62% Fe fines, fot Qingdao: 775 yuan per wet metric tonne (implied 62% Fe China Port Price: $99.00 per dry tonne), down by 16 yuan per wmt 67.5% Fe pellet feed premium, cfr Qingdao: $0.80 per tonne, unchanged 67.5% Fe pellet feed, cfr Qingdao: $115.80 per tonne, down $0.51 per tonne 65% Fe concentrate premium, cfr Qingdao: $(5.50) per tonne, unchanged 65% Fe concentrate, cfr Qingdao: $104.62 per tonne, down $0.51 per tonne
Trades/offers/bids heard in the market Rio Tinto, tender, 170,000 tonnes of 60.8% Fe Pilbara Blend fines, traded at $94.88 per tonne CFR Qingdao (61% Fe base), laycan July 7-16
Beijing Iron Ore Trading Center, 290,000 tonnes of 65% Fe Carajas fines, offered at the June average of Fastmarkets’ 65% Fe index with a discount of $2.20 per tonne, bill of lading dated April 29
BHP, tender, 190,000 tonnes of 58.99% Fe Jingbao fines, bill of lading dated May 21
Market participant indications Fastmarkets’ index for iron ore 62% Fe fines CFR Qingdao Pilbara Blend fines: $96.41-100.00 per tonne Brazilian Blend fines: $97.82-99.50 per tonne Newman fines: $96.68-97.58 per tonne Mac fines: $96.25-97.28 per tonne Jimblebar fines: $92.00-93.28 per tonne
Fastmarkets’ index for iron ore 65% Fe Brazil-origin fines CFR Qingdao Iron Ore Carajas: $110.00-112.00 per tonne
Fastmarkets’ index for iron ore 67.5% Fe Pellet Feed Premium, CFR Qingdao Minas Rio BFPF Pellet Feed: $(3.00)-(5.00) per tonne Atacama CNN Pellet Feed: $(2.50)-(3.00) per tonne Romeral Pellet Feed: $(2.00) per tonne Shougang Hierro Peru 70: $0.25-0.60 per tonne Kaunis Pellet Feed: $0.00-1.00 per tonne Metinvest 68% Pellet Feed: $(3.00)-(4.00) per tonne
Fastmarkets’ index for iron ore 65% Fe Concentrate Premium, CFR Qingdao Citic Pacific Concentrate: $(5.50) per tonne Karara Concentrate: $(6.89) per tonne Metinvest SevGok Concentrate: $(5.00)-(5.50) per tonne
Port prices Pilbara Blend fines were traded at 750-780 yuan per wmt in Shandong province, and the ports of Tangshan city on Thursday, compared with 763-780 yuan per wmt on Wednesday.
The latest range is equivalent to about $96-100 per tonne in the seaborne market.
Dalian Commodity Exchange The most-traded September iron ore futures contract on the exchange closed at 727 yuan ($101) per tonne on Thursday, down by 1.50 yuan from the previous closing price.