02/25/2025 15:46:52 UTC | Top News
Author Fast Webs<.>, <.>

* Could come at the expense of Canadian exports to the US
* Would require lifting of US ban, tariff reductions
* Redirecting metal to US in such volume would be China’s loss

Russia is ready to supply 2 million mt of aluminum to the US and is open to cooperation with the US on the construction of additional smelting capacity, President Vladimir Putin said in a Feb. 24 interview to Russian state broadcasting company VGTRK.
“If a decision is made to open the US market for our producers, then we could sell about 2 million mt,” he said.
This will be a huge jump from near nil tonnage Russia supplies to the US at present.
In 2024, the US imported 798 mt of Russian unwrought aluminum under HS code 7601. The minute tonnage was the result of the ban the US issued on the import of Russian-origin aluminum, as well as copper and nickel, produced after mid-April 2024.
The 2024 ban followed an introduction of a 200% tariff on Russian aluminum in March 2023, and this alone slashed imports by over 90% to 16,900 mt in 2023, from 192,000 mt in 2022, shows data from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Global Trade Atlas.
It will be easy to nullify the duty, or reduce it to a reasonable 10%; tackling the import ban will depend on how it was carried out — if by a presidential order, then it is also easy to cancel it, an industry analyst who wished to be unnamed told Platts.
The import ban was implemented through executive action not by Congress; the Treasury carried it out under executive orders 14068 and 14071, according to Platts.
The lifting of US sanctions imposed by a president can be straightforward, but sanctions imposed on the basis of statutes enacted by US Congress are more difficult and slower to remove. The process will require new action by Congress, and the outcome is uncertain at best, according to the law firm Freshfields’ website.
However, the volume Putin touted Russia could export to the US is more than double the amount the country supplied over the past two and a half decades, when its exports to the US were the highest averaging 715,000 mt/year in 2016-17 and 878,000 mt/year in 2004-05.
Therefore, the proposed tonnage of 2 million mt raises a question as to whether its plausible even in the context of mended relations between Russia and the US for Russia to send that amount to the US.
The analyst reckons by announcing 2 million mt Putin tossed in a trump card to the US dealings with Canada as it is only comparable to what the US buys from by far its largest supplier. Canada sold the US an average 2.56 million mt/year of unwrought aluminum over the last five years from 2020-2024. And in 2023-24, it covered two-thirds (2.7 million mt) of the US 4 million mt/year of aluminum imports.
The Americans are telling Canada through Russia that if it redirects aluminum sales to the EU, they can source just as much from Russia, the analyst said.
Were this to happen, Russian exports of this magnitude would amount to around one-third of total US aluminum demand and around half of all the latter’s primary aluminum import requirements, said Karen Norton, principal aluminum analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights .
Given the rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape since January 20th, it is difficult to say whether this will materialize but the potential imposition of tariffs on the U.S.’ other primary aluminum suppliers could open the door for Russian imports, she says.

Tariffs on Canada

The imposition of punitive import tariffs including on Canada has already raised the prospect of significant changes to trade flows, with the potential for Canadian metal to be shipped instead to the EU. Canadian aluminum is seen as desirable as it is produced using hydro-electricity, but so too is most Russian aluminum, according to Norton.
There are many moving parts at play, with the EU’s 16th sanctions package including a ban on imports of Russian primary aluminum. Also to consider, it might be difficult for Russia to sell metal to the US in such volume, as it would mark a significant loss for China at a time when China’s own production looks set to slow as legal smelter capacity is close to the 45 million mt/year cap, says Norton stressing that China is currently the main destination for Russian aluminum, taking around 1.127 million mt, or 61% of the country’s total exports last year.
Yet, according to Putin, Russia and the US could think about working together on new production. “For example, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, there were plans to build a new hydropower plant and create additional facilities for the production of aluminum,” Putin said in the interview.

Expansion plans

There he alluded to the second stage of Rusal’s Boguchansky smelter (BoAZ). In May 2024, Rusal was looking to partner with an unnamed Chinese company to double the capacity of BoAZ, its newest aluminum smelter near Krasnoyarsk, eastern Siberia, to 600,000 mt/year. But this would also require additional hydropower capacity. BoAZ is linked to Boguchansk’s 3,000 MW hydropower plant.
The construction of BoAZ Phase 2 was meant to start this year, but those were the plans from last October, a representative of Rusal told Platts, adding the company has no update on the project.
Russia does not need this extra capacity unless the US really takes 2 million mt of aluminum, the Russian analyst said.