LME copper, aluminium prices maintain gains as Middle East supply threats linger
Published by:Julienne Raboca<>
24 Jun 2025 @ 10:46 UTC

The London Metal Exchange three-month copper and aluminium contracts held onto recent advances on Tuesday, June 24, while markets continued to factor in supply disruption risks from Middle Eastern tensions and mine closures. Three-month futures prices at 9am remained largely static compared with Monday’s 5pm close, while warehouse stocks declined across the complex:
• Copper: $9,694.50 per tonne, up by 0.28% • Aluminium: $2,592 per tonne, up by 0.14% • Nickel: $14,840 per tonne, up by 0.24% • Zinc: $2,686 per tonne, down by 0.04% • Lead: $2,007 per tonne, up by 0.20% • Tin: $32,570 per tonne, down by 0.38%
“Copper, aluminium and tin are having their own backwardation party,” Fastmarkets base metals analyst Andy Farida said. “Supply-driven dynamics have forced these three base metals to squeeze the nearby spreads.
Farida pointed to copper being rerouted to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange amid tariff concerns, with 200,000 tonnes of the material being shifted to US warehouses – exacerbating the market’s struggle with historically low treatment charges.
“Aluminium supply remains under threat following the potential closure of the Hormuz Strait,” Farida added. “Tin mines in Myanmar’s Man Maw remain non-operational, while disrupted output out of Malaysia Smelting Corp remains unresolved.”
These supply constraints have pushed the three metals into backwardation, reflecting tighter spot market availability and meaning immediate delivery commands a premium over future contracts.
In contrast to the backwardations in the cash/three-month spreads in copper, aluminium and tin, zinc, nickel and lead have maintained healthy contango structures without similar supply pressures.
Copper The cash/three-month spread for copper widened to a $279.97 per tonne backwardation from $274.99 per tonne on Friday.
“The base metals complex opened this week with pockets of volatility, as copper spreads tightened significantly,” Sucden Financial head of research Daria Efanova said. “However, the lack of futures price moves suggests a growing disconnection between the spreads and actual pricing. Copper prices remained within a narrow range of $30 per tonne.”
Copper inventories on the LME have plunged nearly 60% since mid-February 2025.
Aluminium Concerns over potential Middle Eastern supply disruptions continued to support aluminium prices. LME warehouse stocks declined, while the cash/three-month spread maintained an $11.37 per tonne backwardation.
“Aluminium rallied to a three-month high on concerns that the escalating conflict in the Middle East disrupts supplies,” Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, said. “Middle Eastern countries produce almost 9% of the world’s aluminium. If the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, it could affect bauxite and alumina shipments to the various smelters in the region.”
The metal posted the strongest weekly performance among base metals, gaining 2.98% week on week following Iran’s parliamentary approval on June 22 to close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation to US airstrikes, which would immediately cut off Middle Eastern aluminium exports.
Lead There was 8,000 tonnes of fresh warrant cancellations for lead, though analysts noted that total cancelled warrant levels remain well below the May highs before large re-warranting warehouse activities.
Although the 8,000 cancelled lead warrants look sizeable on paper, we need to see more cancellations in order for LME lead inventory levels to be changed, Farida said.
Nickel The three-month nickel price recovered from Monday’s 1.38% decline when it was the only major base metal to fall. The metal broke recent support at $14,900 per tonne to reach $14,804 per tonne, marking an April low, before staging Tuesday’s modest recovery, according to Sucden Financial.
“All [base metals] dip after geopolitical headlines are being bought in – bar nickel,” Farida said. “Wake up nickel.”
Unlike copper, aluminium and tin, nickel maintained a healthy $199.05 per tonne contango, widening from $192.86 per tonne on Friday, reflecting the absence of the same bullish supply stories supporting the backwardated metals.
Nickel stocks in LME warehouses declined by 1.76% week on week, contrasting with gains across most other base metals as physical demand and general demand outlook remained weak.