Published by:Zihuan Pan<>
16 Apr 2025 @ 10:36 UTC

Chinese steel hot-rolled coil prices fell on Wednesday April 16, amid fears that positive economic data for the first quarter might persuade the Chinese government to slow down the introduction of stimulus measures, sources told Fastmarkets. Market participants are worried that the plans for stimulus measures to mitigate the impact of US tariffs might even be watered down or put on hold, Fastmarkets understands.
China’s economy expanded by a better-than-expected 5.4% in January-March, maintaining the pace of growth seen in the final quarter of 2024, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Wednesday morning.
And a trader in eastern China said the market was concerned that the measures affected might include cuts to interest rates and the required reserve ratio (RRR) for banks,
In addition to the tariffs imposed by US president Donal Trump, the poor performance of the property sector – which is one of the main pillars of the Chinese economy and a major steel consumer – continues to have a negative impact on the country as a whole and on steel prices in particular, sources said.
The latest NBS data shows that investment in China’s property sector shrank by 9.9% year-on-year in the first quarter, deepening from the decline of 9.8% seen in the first two months of the year.
On the trade war front, the White House has confirmed on Tuesday that Chinese imports to the US will now face tariffs of up to 245%.
Domestic Fastmarkets’ price assessment for steel hot-rolled coil domestic, ex-whs Eastern China was at 3,220-3,240 yuan ($440-442) per tonne on Wednesday, down by 20-30 yuan per tonne from 3,250-3,260 yuan per tonne on Tuesday April 15.
Spot HRC prices failed to improve from a day earlier on Wednesday despite the decline in prices, traders told Fastmakrets.
Export Fastmarkets calculated its steel hot-rolled coil index export, fob main port China at $453 per tonne on Wednesday, down by $5 per tonne from $458 per tonne on Tuesday.
Losses in domestic spot and futures markets, coupled with poor demand, forced the Chinese mills to lower their HRC export offers on Wednesday, sources told Fastmarkets.
Small, privately-owned mills were offering HRC for export at $449-460 per tonne FOB China for 3.0-3.5 mm thick, 1,250-1,500 mm wide SS400/Q235-grade HRC on Wednesday, widening down from $455-460 per tonne FOB on Tuesday.
But larger, state-owned mills kept their HRC export offer base prices steady at $465-500 per tonne FOB on Wednesday, unchanged from earlier in the week.
Market participants said the larger mills were likely to reduce their offers to $465-470 per tonne FOB for firm orders.
Buyers in the major export market Vietnam have been bidding at $470 per tonne CFR Vietnam so far this week for Q235-grade HRC in widths of 2,000 mm – a grade that is not subject tothe Vietnamese government’s anti-dumping (AD) duties.
But with freight rates from China to Vietnam estimated at around $12 per tonne, these bids were regarded as too low to be workable, a second trader in eastern China said.
Market participants are also worried that Vietnam’s AD duties will be expanded to cover HRC in widths up to 2,000 mm. And, together with quiet demand amid all the tariff turmoil and concerns over a clamp down on export trading of steel products that do not pay value-added-tax (VAT), this was said to be keeping trading in Chinese HRC exports muted in recent weeks.
Green steel Fastmarkets’ assessment of the flat steel reduced carbon emissions, daily inferred, exw Chin awas 3,220-3,790 yuan per tonne on Wednesday, down by 20-30 yuan per tonne from 3,250-3,810 yuan per tonne on Tuesday.
This was assessed based on Fastmarkets’ fortnightly price assessment of the flat steel reduced carbon emissions differential, exw China, which calculates the premium for flat-rolled reduced carbon emissions steel over products produced using the traditional blast furnace route, came in at 0-550 yuan per tonne on Friday April 11.
Market chatter [Chinese HRC] prices are expected to remain weak in choppy trading in the near term, given the absence of a strong demand uptick domestically and the fact that external demand is being constrained by trade defence measures from various regions and Trump tariff uncertainty, an industry analyst in eastern China said.
Shanghai Futures Exchange The most-traded SHFE October HRC futures contract closed at 3,205 yuan per tonne on Wednesday ,down by 31 yuan per tonne from Tuesday’s close of 3,236 yuan per tonne.