Published by:James McKeigue<>
25 Jun 2025 @ 11:40 UTC

Changes in base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were all by margins smaller than 1% in early trading on Wednesday, June 25, with the price of aluminium the only one to fall. Three-month futures prices at 9.03am on Wednesday, compared with Tuesday’s 5pm close: • Copper: $9,708.50 per tonne, up by 0.41% • Aluminium: $2,563.50 per tonne, down by 0.6% • Nickel: $14,990 per tonne, up by 0.47% • Zinc: $2,701 per tonne, up by 0.72% • Lead: $2,034.50 per tonne, up by 0.76% • Tin: $32,615 per tonne, up by 0.91%.
LME base metals prices have been remarkably steady since news broke of Israel’s attack on Iran on June 13.
That steadiness continued on Wednesday with only marginal price moves across the LME base metals complex.
There has been a lack of market response to the Israel-Iran armed conflict, an analyst source said.
The events last week were met with something of a shrug, as if [market] participants are pricing-in a military de-escalation, the source added. And so far, that seems to be borne out by events this week, because the Iranian response to the US bombing was symbolic, rather than raising the stakes.
Aluminium The metal that most market participants would expect to have been affected by any disruption in the Middle East was aluminium.
The Persian Gulf is a significant aluminium producer to the global market, excluding China, the analyst source said. But even if the situation got worse and shipping was closed around the Persian Gulf, you [would] still have the option of going overland west [and then shipping] from the Red Sea.
Yet the LME aluminium price did not seem to be taking account of any disruption on Wednesday morning. The three-month contract for the lightweight metal fell by just 0.6% to $2,563.50 per tonne in morning trading.
The place to look is the alumina market, the source said. The region is a net importer of alumina, and it would be much harder to divert via road.
Copper The copper price was also calm on Wednesday, rising by just 0.41% to reach $9,708.50 per tonne.
We [expect to] see no let-up in volatility in copper prices, spreads, stock flows and premiums until there is more clarity on copper tariffs, Fastmarkets analyst Andy Cole said in research notes on June 24.
Cole pointed to four consecutive weeks when copper cash prices have outperformed three-month prices. As a result, he said, the LME cash/three-month spread has plunged into deep backwardation, which stood at $291 per tonne on Friday and was even wider at the start of this week, at $345 per tonne — the largest cash/three-month backwardation since 2021.
LME inventories are tight, with material having been relocated to the US in recent weeks in anticipation of tariffs being introduced. Wednesday saw a 1,200-tonne withdrawal of copper from the LME, leaving overall stocks at 93,475 tonnes.
Market volatility and spot prices will recede, thus easing the backwardation, when clarity emerges on tariffs, the analyst source said. The Section 232 investigation [in the US] into copper imports into the US will probably conclude that imports are a threat to national security.
The uncertainty has artificially amplified the spreads, he added, causing distortion in the market. It is widely expected when tariffs are announced that there will be correction on COMEX and the LME.
Upstream, there has been supply-side disruption at the Kakula underground mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where operations were suspended on May 20. Canadian miner Ivanhoe Mines restarted operations there on June 11.
But the analyst said that anticipation and regulation are more relevant to price movements than the fundamentals of mining activity. Most supply models factor in a level of disruption, he said, and the Kakula reduction sits within that.