Global trade war uncertainty pressures iron ore price to 3-month low
Published by: Norman Fong<>
7 Apr 2025 @ 11:59 UTC
Seaborne iron ore prices slipped to their lowest levels since mid-January on Monday April 7 amid an across-the-board dip in steel-related derivatives.
Trading was limited in both primary and secondary seaborne markets amid thin interest from buyers and sellers due to the sharp dip in prices, according to sources.
Key drivers The most-traded September iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) fell from the previous closing price of 743.50 yuan ($102) per tonne.
By 5:24 pm Singapore time, the most-traded May contract on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) decreased by $3.07 per tonne compared to the previous settlement price of $100.62 per tonne.
Steel-related futures tumbled in line with a broader sell-off in the global market following tariffs announced by the Trump administration in the previous week.
A Hong Kong-based trader told Fastmarkets that selling interest dominated the iron ore derivatives market over the trading day. Most institutional investors were seeking to release their existing positions amid uncertainty over global trade flows and a global trade war between major trading blocs, they said.
The sell-off in steelmaking futures is mainly a symptom of the sell-off in financial derivatives by institutional investors reacting to the possibility of a global recession sparked off by the trader war, a trader in Singapore said.
A prolonged trade war can be expected to hamper revenues across multiple economic verticals, which is why most investors were seeking to let go of existing positions to minimize risk, they added.
The sharp movement in the derivative market effectively put a pause on trading in the seaborne market, with buyers and sellers in the iron ore market hesitant to trade physical cargoes due to the heightened price uncertainty, according to a trader in Shanghai.
The trader added that there is an increased fear among steel traders that demand for other types of steel may be affected by the scale of the fresh round of tariffs on an extensive list of manufactured goods.
Beyond the direct impact of a steel tariff which was announced earlier in the first quarter, we are expecting the fresh round of tariffs to hamper steel demand from China’s manufacturing sector, a trader in Beijing said. Manufacturing and consumer good exports have helped to displace some of the demand from the dip in construction-related steel, so the imposition of tariffs on a broader range of goods could deal further damage to steel demand.
The first round of coke price increases in the domestic Chinese market is expected to be implemented by the end of the trading week, with some coke producers seeking a 50-55 yuan per tonne rise on Wednesday April 9.
This is the first round of coke price hikes in China since end-October 2024, when prices slipped by around 500-600 yuan per tonne, according to a source in Shandong.
An 80,000-tonne cargo of 62.2% Fe Newman Blend Lump with laycan between May 1-10 was traded via a tender at the May average of Fastmarkets’ 62% Fe index and another 62% Fe index on an FOB Australia basis, plus a lump premium of $0.1458 per dry metric tonne unit.
Fastmarkets’ iron ore 62.5% Fe Australia-origin lump ore premium, cfr Qingdao was $0.1400 per tonne on Monday April 7, down by $0.0050 per tonne from average premiums in the previous trading week, which stood at $0.1450 per tonne.
A sustained increase in coke prices in the domestic market could see steelmakers reducing their sintering loads, which would mean that iron ore lump pries may start to see some softness in the coming weeks, a second trader in Shanghai said.
Pellet feed and concentrates Pellet feed premiums held steady at $0.60 per tonne based on a 65% Fe index.
Limited offers were heard in the seaborne market, but some market participants said the increase in domestic coke prices could translate into stronger pellet premiums in the coming weeks, providing some support for pellet feed prices.
Fastmarkets iron ore indices 62% Fe fines, cfr Qingdao: $98.80 per tonne, down $3.77 per tonne 62% Fe low-alumina fines, cfr Qingdao: $98.25 per tonne, down $3.85 per tonne 58% Fe fines high-grade premium, cfr Qingdao: $84.71 per tonne, down $3.14 per tonne 65% Fe Brazil-origin fines, cfr Qingdao: $111.69 per tonne, down $3.80 per tonne 62.5% Fe Australia-origin lump ore premium, cfr Qingdao: $0.1400 per dry metric tonne unit (dmtu), down $0.0050 per dmtu 62% Fe fines, fot Qingdao: 790 yuan per wet metric tonne (implied 62% Fe China Port Price: $100.01 per dry tonne), down by 15 yuan per wmt 67.5% Fe pellet feed premium, cfr Qingdao: $0.60 per tonne, unchanged 67.5% Fe pellet feed, cfr Qingdao: $116.63 per tonne, down $3.37 per tonne 65% Fe concentrate premium, cfr Qingdao: $(4.90) per tonne, unchanged 65% Fe concentrate, cfr Qingdao: $106.08 per tonne, down $3.29 per tonne
Trades/offers/bids heard in the market BHP, Beijing Iron Ore Trading Center (COREX), 80,000 tonnes of 60.5% Fe Jimblebar fines, traded at the May average of two 62% Fe indices with a discount of $6.10 per tonne, laycan May 1-10
BHP, tender, 80,000 tonnes of 62.5% Fe Newman Blend lump, traded at the May average of Fastmarkets’ 62% Fe index and another 62% Fe index on an FOB Australia basis plus a lump premium of $0.1458 per dry metric tonne unit, laycan May 6-15
Market participants’ indications Fastmarkets’ index for iron ore 62% Fe fines CFR Qingdao Pilbara Blend fines: $98.00-98.90 per tonne Brazilian Blend fines: $97.56-98.60 per tonne Newman fines: $95.70-96.20 per tonne Mac fines: $94.90-96.20 per tonne Jimblebar fines: $91.60-92.50 per tonne
Fastmarkets’ index for iron ore 67.5% Fe Pellet Feed Premium, CFR Qingdao Minas Rio BFPF Pellet Feed: $(3.50)-(5.00) per tonne Atacama CNN Pellet Feed: $(2.00)-(3.00) per tonne Romeral Pellet Feed: $(2.00) per tonne Shougang Hierro Peru 70: $0.50-0.60 per tonne Kaunis Pellet Feed: $0.50-1.00 per tonne Metinvest 68% Pellet Feed: $(2.30)-(3.00) per tonne Ferrexpo 67%: $(3.00)-(3.50) per tonne
Fastmarkets’ index for iron ore 65% Fe Concentrate Premium, CFR Qingdao Citic Pacific Concentrate: $(4.00)-(4.50) per tonne Karara Concentrate: $(5.00)-(5.65) per tonne Metinvest SevGok Concentrate: $(4.00)-(4.50) per tonne
Port prices Pilbara Blend fines were traded at 768-775 yuan per wmt in Shandong province, Lianyungang city, and the ports of Tangshan city on Monday.
The latest range is equivalent to about $97-98 per tonne in the seaborne market.
Dalian Commodity Exchange The most-traded September iron ore futures contract on the exchange closed at 720 yuan ($99) per tonne on Monday, down by 23.50 yuan per tonne from the previous closing price.