Published by:Julia Bolotova<>
12 May 2025 @ 16:25 UTC

Global steel market participants gathered on May 6-8 for a trade fair that takes place once every two years in Milan, Italy. Global trade disruptions, the decline in the European steel industry, decarbonization and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) were at the center of discussions.

Steel prices lose momentum amid low demand Several weeks ahead of the trade fair there was a holiday stretch across Europe, so trading activity slowed down across all steel markets. Sources hoped the Made in Steel event would bring greater clarity on further trends, with some even expecting further price increase announcement for flat steel in particular from European steelmakers.
However, optimistic moods faded and no price breakthrough happened, industry sources said.
[Hot-rolled coil] prices remained where they were. In fact, in May-June due to seasonality factors and overall weak demand, we might see downward correction, a steel service center source told Fastmarkets.
Fastmarkets’ calculated the dailysteel hot-rolled coil index, domestic, exw Northern Europewas €652.08 ($735) per tonne on May 8, down by €0.42 per tonne from €652.50 per tonne on May 7.
The index was down by €2.92 per tonne week on week and down by €2.30 per tonne month on month.
Offers voiced at €680-700 per tonne ex-works by first-tier suppliers in April were not eventually sealed in deals.
A similar trend was observedin long steel markets, with European steelmakers struggling to lift prices, while buyers were pushing for discounts, citing drops in prices for steel scrap, which is the primary raw material for long steel products.
Buyers ask for €10-20 per tonne discounts, which we cannot give them, cause input costs remain high, energy, labor costs, etc., etc., a long steel producer in Italy told Fastmarkets.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment forsteel reinforcing bar (rebar) domestic, delivered Northern Europewas €655-680 per tonne on May 7, narrowing upward from €650-680 per tonne on April 30.
Trade defense measures disrupt supply chains The introduction oftougher steel safeguards measuresin April, followed by the implementation of provisional dutiesagainst Egypt, Vietnam and Japan, made steel imports even more complicated for European buyers, driving traditional suppliers out of the market.
In 2024, the EU imported 9.7 million tonnes of HRC, up from 9.24 million tonnes in 2023, according to Global Trade Tracker (GTT) stats.
Altogether, Egypt, Vietnam and Japan supplied 2.45 million tonnes of HRC to the EU in 2024, accounting for 25% of total HRC imports to the bloc, GTT stats showed.
Importing steel was made close to impossible, especially for smaller companies which can’t handle the costs [of CBAM, duties, etc.], a buyer in Europe said.
With a13% quota cap on the other countries quotafor HRC and reduced quarterly allocations for key suppliers by 10-25%, European buyers were getting increasingly cautions with new import bookings, seeking new suppliers unaffected by trade measures.
With traditional suppliers facing trade limitations, in 2025, new suppliers — Malaysia and Indonesia — were seen capturing a larger market share.
Sources noted that the sharp increase in HRC deliveries from these two origins might result in either an anti-dumping probe or their inclusion in the other countries quota, with the latter appearing more likely than the former.
For example, in January-March, Indonesia has already supplied 86,918 tonnes of HRC to the EU, compared with just 22,684 tones during the same period in 2024. Total HRC deliveries from Indonesia to the EU were 249,018 tonnes in 2024.
An anti-dumping probe takes nine months or so. Plus, Indonesia’s domestic market is not transparent enough to compare domestic and export prices. It’s more likely they will be included in safeguards (which takes less time to be implemented), a buyer source said.
Decarbonization slows down in Europe in the face of crisis The European steel sector has been facing rising production costs, increased pressure from low-cost imports from Asia and the ongoing deterioration of the steel demand-supply balance in Europe, sources told Fastmarkets.
Crude steel output across Europe rebounded slightly to 129.5 million tonnes in 2024, compared with 126.3 million tonnes in 2023, according to the World Steel Association. But the total volume was still below the 159.4 million tonnes recorded pre-Covid in 2019.
It’s not [attractive] to produce steel in Europe anymore, a steel mill in Germany said.
Apparent steel consumption in the EU amounted to 127 million tonnes in 2024, down by 2.3% from 130 million tonnes in 2023 and lower than during the 2020 pandemic year, when it stood at 129 million tonnes, data from the European steel association Eurofer showed.
Real steel consumption shrunk by 3.8% in 2024 to around 132.7 million tonnes, from around 138 million tonnes in 2023.
While both steel consumption and production in the EU decreased, the share of steel imports in the European market has been rising, crowding out local supply, sources noted.
Carbon steel imports to the EU in 2024 totaled 26.36 million tonnes, up by 6.4% compared with 24.78 million tonnes in 2023, Eurofer data showed.
In such conditions, investing billions of euros in decarbonization was becoming unmanageable, a steel mill source in Europe told Fastmarkets.
Every project needs return on investments. We put money into green energy, certifications, [Environmental Product Declarations], etc. And we struggle to charge premiums for decarbonized steel because buyers are not willing to pay a single euro more in such market, a long steel producer told Fastmarkets.
In autumn 2024, the largest European steelmaker ArcelorMittal said it wouldpostpone a final decision on several investmentsin direct-reduced iron (DRI) modules across Europe due to challenging market fundamentals.
The company has said it will be able to review investment priorities in Europe after the implementation of the EU’sSteel and Metals Action Plan.
In March 2025, Germany’s largest steelmaker thyssenkruppput on hold a hydrogen tender for its green steel plantdue to elevated prices but said that it was still committed to the Duisburg site’s green transformation.
Sources said that, in addition to the high premiums, the lack of public projects across Europe — projects that could insist on green steel procurement — and the lack of stimulus measures to encourage going green were limiting demand for green steel.
If authorities do not push for green steel use through public procurement, [green steel] will remain a niche market, a mill source said.
The effect of energy prices and also the cost of steel within the green transformation is one of the key issues, the distributor source said. The distribution of green steel will be working… if we make green steel, put a label on it and make it part of public procurement.
Fastmarkets’ weekly assessment of thegreen steel, domestic, flat-rolled, differential to HRC index, exw Northern Europewas €150-200 per tonne on May 8, stable week on week.
Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment forgreen steel, differential to steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered Northern Europewas €20-40 per tonne on Wednesday, widening upward from €20-30 per tonne a week earlier.
European mills confirmed that they were selling most of their green steel volumes — both flat and long — to the Nordic countries.
Buyers [of green steel] in Norway, Denmark and Sweden are more motivated to buy green steel. They know they can pass the costs [of green steel] down to the end user, because there are many public projects requiring green steel procurement, a buyer source said.
CBAM costs might wipe out small companies The EU’s CBAM is considered to be a major decarbonization driver. It is a tool intended to put a fair price on the carbon emitted during the production of carbon-intensive goods that enter the trading bloc.
However, CBAM’s complexityposes certain challengesfor importers and brings additional costs. European steel buyers have expressed concerns about the lack of clarity in its implementation, the potential for circumvention and the potential for lost added value for the European manufacturing industry.
Steel importers might start avoiding importing goods covered by the CBAM and instead buy items with higher customs classification instead of semi-finished products, a trading source said.
Small- and medium-sized steel importers are concerned with CBAM compliance costs, including supplier communications, software, data verification and so on, a source in Germany said.
We did the calculations based on our imports volumes in 2024, and CBAM handing costs are estimated to be €6.5 million. This is totally unmanageable, a buyer in Northern Europe said.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the European Commission will introduce CBAM amendments, including a potential extension of its downstream scope and additional anti-circumvention measures, Fastmarkets reported.